Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
